MENA Newswire, ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund lowered its 2026 economic growth projection for Pakistan to 3.2%, trimming the forecast from 3.6% in its October 2025 World Economic Outlook. The revision was published in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update released on Jan. 19, alongside updated global projections and country tables.
The IMF’s country data show Pakistan’s 2026 projection at 3.2% real GDP growth, indicating a slower expansion than the Fund previously expected. The IMF update does not provide a detailed narrative for individual countries, but the revision reflects the Fund’s updated assessment of recent data and conditions feeding into its standardized forecasting framework.
Pakistan’s domestic growth estimates have varied across periods. The National Accounts Committee approved revised annual GDP growth of 3.09% for fiscal year 2024-25 and reported 3.71% growth for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, according to figures cited in local reporting that referenced the IMF update. The IMF’s new projection underscores a more cautious view of the overall pace of activity through 2026.
The IMF’s adjustment comes within the context of its ongoing engagement with Pakistan under Fund-supported arrangements. On Dec. 8, 2025, the IMF Executive Board completed the second review under Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility arrangement and the first review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement, a decision that enabled immediate disbursements of about $1 billion under the EFF and about $200 million under the RSF.
How the IMF framed its latest revision
In its Dec. 8, 2025 decision, the IMF described Pakistan’s program performance and outlined policy priorities centered on maintaining macroeconomic stability and implementing structural reforms. The Fund said the 37-month EFF was approved on Sept. 25, 2024, and the 28-month RSF was approved on May 9, 2025, and that the latest disbursements brought total disbursements under the two arrangements to about $3.3 billion.
The IMF also published macroeconomic indicators with that Executive Board decision. Those figures included real GDP growth of 3.0% for FY2025 and a projection of 3.2% for FY2026, alongside gross official reserves of $14.5 billion at end-FY2025 compared with $9.4 billion at end-FY2024. The Fund also cited a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP in FY2025 as part of its assessment of fiscal performance.
The January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update set Pakistan’s revised forecast against a global backdrop the IMF described as steady, with growth projected at 3.3% in 2026. The IMF also projected global inflation easing over time, while emphasizing that outcomes differ widely across economies and depend on country-level conditions reflected in its data updates.
What the new outlook means for 2026
The IMF’s cut to Pakistan’s 2026 growth projection signals a lower baseline than the one published three months earlier, narrowing expectations for near-term economic expansion. The revision aligns the IMF’s forecast with a more measured reading of growth momentum, even as Pakistan continues under an IMF-supported policy framework reviewed by the Executive Board in December.
The IMF’s latest country tables place Pakistan’s projected growth rate below levels typically associated with a rapid recovery, while still implying continued expansion. The update provides a single headline growth figure for 2026 and does not include country-specific commentary in the publication itself, making the revised forecast the central data point for the outlook change reflected in the IMF’s January release.