ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan is responsible for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region, based on the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. This measure uses the international extreme poverty threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making it the primary contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP regional grouping.
According to the World Bank, Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together account for another 47% of MENAAP’s population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four nations comprise roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, MENAAP accounts for about 14% of the global population living in extreme poverty, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region remains the only one within the World Bank’s classification where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to increase.
Pakistan also experienced a rise at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line, which is used to define lower-middle-income economies. The percentage of people below this threshold increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25, with World Bank data placing the rate at approximately 48% in 2024 compared to 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this worsening situation to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and an extended period of economic adjustment.
Poverty pressures intensify following successive shocks
These latest figures come after a significant revision to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026, which incorporated new household survey data from Pakistan, leading to an increase in the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This adjustment added roughly 21 million people to the region’s total of individuals living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, the World Bank stated that MENAAP remains one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Pakistan’s economy has seen some recovery from recent lows, but poverty indicators remain persistently high. The October regional update estimates Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26, with a forecast of 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. It also projects real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while inflation is expected to reach 7.1% in 2026 and rise to 8.2% in 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification influences the headline statistics
The 48% figure reflects the World Bank’s current classification of the MENAAP region, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this change, the World Bank’s regional statistics grouped these countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government stated that this adjustment was purely administrative and statistical, and did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad noted that the updated grouping affected regional poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The October update from the World Bank also indicated a softer economic outlook for the region in 2026, projecting a contraction of 2.1% in regional output after a growth of 3.3% in 2025, primarily due to conflict and disruptions affecting energy, logistics, and trade. Despite these challenges, developing oil-importing nations such as Pakistan are expected to remain relatively resilient, with growth projected at 4.3% for that group in 2026, although rising food and energy prices continue to put pressure on household purchasing power across several economies.