PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal might cut down its daily vessel count to approximately 29 ships in February or March 2027 if the drought persists, according to its newly appointed administrator. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her role on Sept. 7 and highlighted the potential impact of El Niño on reservoir levels. Since the canal relies heavily on freshwater from lakes fed by rainfall to operate its locks, the Panama Canal Authority has already begun implementing phased capacity reductions in response to below-average precipitation across the watershed.
Beginning on Sept. 3, the canal provided nine daily Neopanamax slots alongside 25 Panamax slots, making a total capacity of 34. From Sept. 15 onward, the number of Panamax slots will decrease to 23, reducing the overall daily capacity to 32. These adjustments follow a period of diminished rainfall during Panama’s wet season and decreased inflows into the watershed, prompting officials to adopt water-saving strategies and stricter booking protocols while closely monitoring Gatun Lake and other water sources.
During fiscal year 2026, the waterway averaged 35 transits each day through June 30, based on official operational data. It recorded 10,726 transits from October to June, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to the same span the previous year. These figures were recorded before recent rainfall shortages prompted tighter operational restrictions. As a crucial link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the canal facilitates major trade routes for containers, energy shipments, bulk commodities, and various other cargo.
Water shortages force capacity reductions in transit
The operation of canal locks depends on freshwater sourced from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower ships during each transit, making reservoir levels a critical factor in determining how many vessels can navigate the waterway during extended dry spells. During the intense drought of 2023, daily transits dropped to 22 in December as Gatun Lake’s water levels reached historically low points. Following rainfall improvements and conservation efforts, capacity was gradually restored as the available water supply stabilized for both canal operations and public use.
Furthermore, the canal has modified vessel draft limits to better manage water resources. On Sept. 4, officials postponed a planned reduction in the maximum draft for Neopanamax vessels to 47.5 feet; the current limit of 48 feet remains in effect after evaluating Gatun Lake’s water levels and weather forecasts. Draft limits are crucial as they determine the deepest point to which vessels can be loaded, especially for ships carrying heavier cargoes, and thus directly influence operational capacity.
Changes in booking policies accompany capacity constraints
In response to the restricted capacity, the canal has revised its booking and auction procedures, now grouping vessels based on cargo type—such as gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers—in daily auction slots. When vessel conditions are comparable, full container ships with higher carrying capacities are prioritized in Neopanamax allocations. Authorities have urged vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system because limited capacity can lead to longer waiting times, with only reservations guaranteeing a specific transit date.
The previously considered reduction to a cap of 29 ships per day has not yet been mandated, though the administrator indicated this level could be implemented in February or March if the drought conditions do not improve. Ongoing monitoring of rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels continues to inform potential operational adjustments. Additionally, the canal is progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project, aimed at expanding long-term water storage capacity as part of Panama’s broader strategy to secure water supplies for canal operations and over half of the country’s population.